Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza

A5. What type of pandemic are we planning for

We are planning to have the capacity, capability and flexibility to respond to a pandemic as severe as the one that occurred in 1918.

Rapid international travel, the significant numbers of people living with chronic health issues and our high expectations of modern medicine, mean that we need to plan for a pandemic that could happen very quickly, could disproportionately and severely affect some members of our society, and would put a significant strain on our health services.

If we were to experience a pandemic as severe as the one that occurred in 1918 and we were not prepared and unable to respond, scientists have estimated that in Australia:

• 40 per cent of the population (8.5 million Australians ⁵ ) could show clinical signs of infection during a pandemic
• 2.4 per cent of those affected would die (around 200,000 people)
• 50 per cent of the population may not go to work at the peak of the pandemic
• several waves each lasting up to 12 weeks could occur
• disruption to services could last as long as two years.

Clearly, we are planning to respond and reduce the impact of this type of pandemic. It is estimated that if we were unfortunate enough to experience a pandemic as severe as that in 1918, but we were prepared and were able to respond effectively, then:

• the number of cases could be reduced from 40 per cent clinically affected, to 10 per cent clinically affected, that is around 2.1 million Australians
• death rates could be halved to 1.2 per cent of those clinically affected, that is around 25,000 people may die
• absenteeism at the peak could be 30 to 50 per cent
• the duration of the pandemic in Australia could be 7–10 months, in a single wave
• the level of disruption across all sectors would be reduced (although persisting for a longer period at a more manageable level).

To put the mortality figures in context, about 2,800 Australians (mainly elderly) die each year from influenza and pneumonia.

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5 This figure is based on the estimated resident population projection to mid 2008.

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This information is current for 03 September, 2010
This information was issued on 05 December, 2008