Australian Health Management Plan for Pandemic Influenza

C1. How the pandemic planning assumptions were developed

The SIAG was formed in 2007. SIAG is a group of Australia’s leading influenza experts brought together to review the data from the previous pandemics along with the latest findings on avian influenza viruses and the most up to date literature on seasonal influenza and its treatments. The result of this work has been the development of a set of assumptions that describe a ‘theoretical but plausible’ pandemic. The work of SIAG builds on the previous work by the National Influenza Pandemic Action Committee.

The assumptions that the SIAG has produced are based on 1918 data that have been ‘applied’ to today’s society to take into account the different structure and health issues of our modern day population. It is also based on extrapolation from experiences with seasonal and avian influenza and on solid technical knowledge of how influenza viruses tend to behave. This analysis has provided an understanding of what is likely to be plausible during a pandemic and what is not. SIAG members base their assumptions on a range of information sources, and draw on the WHO for expert guidance.

As the virus that will cause the next pandemic is yet to emerge, we cannot know exactly how it will behave. The pandemic that we are planning for is therefore unlikely to occur in exactly the way it has been described. It may prove easier to manage in some respects and possibly more challenging in others.

Nonetheless, having clear and explicit assumptions allows the health sector to develop systems to ensure that once the pandemic virus does emerge, we can quickly reassess the assumptions used in our planning. This will ensure that our planned responses are valid, and it allows us to make any adjustments quickly that might be needed if the pandemic virus behaves differently than anticipated.

The pandemic planning assumptions are also being documented so that they can be used consistently in all pandemic planning materials and, as relevant, by all government sectors and jurisdictions.

Assumptions have been documented about how the pandemic would look if no control measures were in place. These are describing an unmitigated pandemic. In addition, assumptions have been documented about what the pandemic would look like if we did intervene and employ control measures to mitigate the pandemic.

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This information is current for 03 September, 2010
This information was issued on 05 December, 2008